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BMAD-METHOD/bmad/bmm/testarch/knowledge/probability-impact.md

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# Probability and Impact Scale
- **Probability**
- 1 Unlikely: standard implementation, low uncertainty.
- 2 Possible: edge cases or partial unknowns worth investigation.
- 3 Likely: known issues, new integrations, or high ambiguity.
- **Impact**
- 1 Minor: cosmetic issues or easy workarounds.
- 2 Degraded: partial feature loss or manual workaround required.
- 3 Critical: blockers, data/security/regulatory exposure.
- Multiply probability × impact to derive the risk score.
- 13: document for awareness.
- 45: monitor closely, plan mitigations.
- 68: CONCERNS at the gate until mitigations are implemented.
- 9: automatic gate FAIL until resolved or formally waived.
_Source: Murat risk model summary._