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# Probability and Impact Scale
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- **Probability**
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- 1 – Unlikely: standard implementation, low uncertainty.
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- 2 – Possible: edge cases or partial unknowns worth investigation.
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- 3 – Likely: known issues, new integrations, or high ambiguity.
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- **Impact**
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- 1 – Minor: cosmetic issues or easy workarounds.
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- 2 – Degraded: partial feature loss or manual workaround required.
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- 3 – Critical: blockers, data/security/regulatory exposure.
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- Multiply probability × impact to derive the risk score.
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- 1–3: document for awareness.
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- 4–5: monitor closely, plan mitigations.
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- 6–8: CONCERNS at the gate until mitigations are implemented.
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- 9: automatic gate FAIL until resolved or formally waived.
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_Source: Murat risk model summary._
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